Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Hurricane stories, fact and fiction 9/13/04

I started following hurricanes when my oldest child moved to coastal North Carolina a few years ago, and have discovered that these uber-storms are habit-forming. Even way far inland as I am, with the help of The Weather Channel, Wunderground and the amazing availability of data at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's website, it's very easy to get sucked into the vortices of the mamouth liquid vacuums. My first real binge hurricane was Isabel, last fall, which I was quite certain was aiming directly at my beloved first-born. Pretty soon I realized it was time to stop downloading sattelite images and time to start trying to convince my adrenaline-addicted child (so what if he's in his twenties - he's still my child!) to evacuate! No avail. It was, "I'm coming home..... I'm coming home..... I'm coming home..... Oops! I'm staying and hosting a Hurricane Party!" I worried myself sick, and he survived unscathed. This season, I've sought moderation. I might keep the TV on TWC in the background, but with the volume down. I might check into NOAA's site a couple of times a day, but am proud to say I haven't downloaded a single ariel view of the storm (yet). I kept a close eye on Bonnie, so to speak, because she was also headed in his direction. I also abandoned myself to watching Charley come ashore because of the drama in his last-moment strengthening and sudden change of direction. I watched Frances worried about friends in her path, and then I watched her remnants rip through my home and lost power to her for 24 hours. I also, indirectly, lost my car battery to her, because I used the car to keep my laptop charged that day and night, and now it's dead as a doornail. It was irresistable. The phone lines were good and it was our only source of news. I've watched Ivan's path, concerned for friends in harm's way in the Caribbean, always keeping one eye on the possibility he could turn west and take aim and my (son number) Two in New Orleans. Well, I am here to say, it's happening. Tulane has already suspended classes and there are dorm meetings tonight at Loyola. But the worst is what the computer models have been showing all day and the fact that it's not what's being projected by TWC. In this morning's 5:00 "discussion" on the NOAA site, it was noted that 3 of the 5 computer models predicted a LA or MS landfall, with the following text: "MOST OF THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS... EXCEPT THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS AND IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS. IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH... I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT." So, wait... everything told him to change the projected track but he didn't, because it was too far off of their previous predictions? WHAT???? So the panhandle has been boarded up for days and the poor folks in LA have 48 hours to board up and/or get out of town? Does this mean that the interstates in and out will be turned around and made all exit lanes? What if I need to go get him?? I will update after his dorm meeting. There is nothing on the school's website, but the kids have heard it won't be updated until after the dorm meetings. I may go get him tonight, but first I'll have to buy a car battery to replace the one I lost to Frances. *sigh* Update: Well, they haven't had the dorm meetings yet, but the word is out. NO CLASSES the rest of this week at UNO, Xavier, Tulane or Loyola. He and his roommate are looking for rides home. If they can't both find a ride, I will go get them tomorrow. He is excited about his surprise visit and hoping to head up to our big U to visit his girlfriend. This is the first news I've gotten of his missing her (although I'm not at all surprised). :-) Yeee Haaa! New Update: They're waiting until tomorrow morning to decide. I bet that they didn't want Hurricane Parties going on tonight in the dorms (with the kids knowing they don't have classes) but the value would have been for those folks who would leave tonight, lessening the possible chaos tomorrow. I'm not pleased. :-(

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